Authors Alvaro Calzadilla, Tingju Zhu, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard S.J. Tol, and Claudia Ringler tackle the obstacles and opportunities for climate change adaptation in their paper Economy wide impacts of climate change on agriculture – case study for adaptation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa.
Utilizing a combination of a partial equilibrium model (IMPACT) and a general equilibrium model (GTAP-W) to assess both changes in agricultural productivity and production, the researchers were able to understand the broad effects climate change has on water and food supplies, general human welfare, and its ultimate effect on global, national, and local economies.
After rigorous investigation of several scenarios through these applied models, and extensive research of simulations run by authors in the field of climate change, Calzadilla et al. determined that agricultural productivity investments provided the greatest potential for sub-Saharan Africa to increase rural incomes while also adapting to climate change. Expansion of irrigation, while important, will take many more years to reach a similar number of people in the region given the low levels of initial investment in that sector.
For detailed charts on the results from their simulations and to read more about their proposed paths toward successful adaptation and agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa, click here.